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FREE TOOL · CHANNEL WATERFALL

CPG margin calculator

Watch what actually reaches you from the shelf price - retailer margin, distributor margin, broker, trade spend, and freight, carved off in real time. Presets use the typical ranges from our retail margins guide; adjust any number to match your reality.

YOUR NUMBERS

auto ≈ 5% of invoice · overwrite with your quote

ADVANCED · CHANNEL PERCENTAGES
THE WATERFALLPER UNIT · BARS SCALED TO SHELF PRICE
0% 35 · FLOOR 40 50 · HEALTHY 60%+

Method: retailer cost = shelf price − retailer margin; your invoice price = retailer cost − distributor margin (where a distributor is used); net revenue = invoice price − broker commission − trade-spend reserve − freight; gross margin = (net revenue − COGS) ÷ net revenue. Typical ranges and the ~35% survival floor come from the retail margins guide. Freight defaults to 5% of your invoice price - an outbound-logistics planning figure (food-industry transportation runs ~4.8% of sales per the Establish Davis survey; total CPG logistics ~7% per GMA/IBM) - and stops auto-updating once you enter your own number. All percentages here are margins on that layer's selling price, not markups on cost. Cash discounts, shrink and spoilage allowances, and distributor program fees are not separate inputs - fold them into your trade spend %. Estimates, not advice - verify against your actual deductions.

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Frequently asked questions

How is gross margin calculated here?

Backward from the shelf: subtract the retailer's margin, then the distributor's, to find your invoice price; subtract broker, trade reserve, and freight for net revenue; gross margin is (net − COGS) ÷ net.

What percentages should I assume per channel?

Typical: conventional grocery 30–40% retailer margin, natural 35–45%, club ~12–15%, mass 25–40%; distributors 20–30%; brokers 3–5% (often 5–10% for emerging brands); trade spend 15–25% of gross sales. The presets use midpoints - adjust to your quotes.

What margin does my product need to survive?

A common floor is ~35% gross margin after all channel costs, with healthy brands at 40–50%. Below that, promotions eat the remaining contribution and each new door multiplies the problem.

This is the generic math. CPG Canary runs yours.

The full analysis computes your channel waterfall deterministically from your actual COGS and live competitor shelf pricing - then stress-tests it against COGS spikes, promo scenarios, and private-label pressure across all sixteen research dimensions.

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